Lead Pipe Inventory Analysis
August 10, 2024
For anybody trying to keep tabs on lead service line replacement in Troy, one of the biggest challenges has been keeping track of the numbers. Fortunately, Troy’s entire lead service line inventory is online, and – with the help of some crafty queries, formulas, and open source software – we are pleased to share that we have been able to reconstruct all of the important figures ourselves. All analysis assumes that the inventory is accurate.
TOP LINE FIGURES
In 2024, Troy has replaced 149 lead service lines. 41 of those have been full service line replacements, 63 have been just private replacements, and 45 have been just public.
In 2023, Troy replaced 108 lead service lines. 35 of those were full service line replacements, 39 were just private replacements, and 34 were just public.
Troy’s lead service line inventory is 50.4% complete, up 0.3% from late April.
At present, there are 399 known public lead service lines and 1579 known private lead service lines.
If Troy’s lead service line replacement program continues at its current rate, we should be lead-free by about 2039 AD, give or take a few years.
When asked by the media, Mayor Mantello generally says that almost 200 lead service lines were replaced in 2023 while DPU employees will offer a figure that is about half of that. Reviewing the data ourselves, we see 35 full service line replacements in 2023, along with 39 replacements on just the private side and 34 replacements on just the public side. This takes the 2023 replacement figure to 108 lead pipes.
If you watched Mayor Mantello whine about us on Facebook Live the other day, you probably heard her say that Troy has replaced “over 200 and some odd” lead pipes all throughout the city. That is only true if you combine 2023 and 2024, or if the inventory is way off. In this calendar year, Troy has replaced 149 lead service lines. Over 80% of those replacements have occurred during the construction season, which generally runs from April to November. If we restrict our averages to the construction season, Troy has been replacing about 6 pipes per week. If the city continues at its current rate this year, it will end the year having replaced about 250 lead pipes in 2024.
Mayor Mantello’s stated goal for 2024 is 400 lead service line replacements. The city is obviously not on track to hit that, although it could realistically make up ground in the second half of the construction season. As we’ve laid out before, 400 is a relatively modest target. In order to hit 100% lead service line replacement by the end of 2027, Troy would likely need to double or even triple that figure in 2025, 2026, and 2027. Here is the same chart from above with some additional context.
The good news is that the lead service line inventory leapt from 50.1% in late April to 50.4% today. The bad news is that Mayor Mantello reported that Troy’s inventory is “pushing over 55% now,” which is not merely misleading.
If the mayor wants to say that Troy is leading the charge statewide, she should plan to replace more pipes in a year than Rochester does in a few weeks. To do that, she will need to stop pretending that it is unconstitutional to bond for lead service line replacement and get a move on. If Troy needs to use financial instruments with lower expectations from creditors, she should explore those. Or perhaps the problem could be solved by declaring an emergency, since Lord knows she’s figured out how to do that when she wants a pocket park. Ultimately, there are any number of solutions here, and it is her job to brainstorm ways to marshal resources toward things that are important – not just things that aren’t.
UPDATE (8/14/24)
In an August 13, 2024 article in the Troy Record about lead service line replacement, the Mantello administration shared that 169 lead service lines have been replaced in 2024. In this analysis of the lead service line inventory from August 10, 2024, our figure was 149. We can see 8 additional lead service line replacements logged between August 8 and 9 since our Saturday query, which brings the 2024 figure to 157.
We can then reach the city’s number if we attribute to 2024 all public replacements occurring between 1991 and 2022, as well as a replacement that will have happened on September 29, 2029.
However you parse the data or experience time, Troy is behind. You can access the raw data from our 8/14/24 query using the link below.
